Researchers saved nearly 20 million lives in the first year with the COVID-19 vaccine on Thursday, but could prevent even more deaths if international shooting targets were met. Reported that.

On December 8, 2020, a retired clerk in the UK received the first shot It will be a global vaccination campaign. Over the next 12 months, more than 4.3 billion people worldwide have purchased vaccines.

Hurt by continued inequality, but effortPrevented death on an unimaginable scale, said Oliver Watson of Imperial College London, who led the new modeling research.

“It’s probably the first word that comes to mind,” Watson said of the consequences of the lack of a vaccine to fight the coronavirus. The findings “quantify how much the pandemic could have worsened in the absence of these vaccines.”

Using data from 185 countries, the vaccine prevented COVID-19 deaths from 4.2 million in India, 1.9 million in the United States, 1 million in Brazil, 631,000 in France, and 507,000 in the United Kingdom. I presumed that.

A study published Thursday would have prevented an additional 600,000 deaths if the World Health Organization’s goal of a 40% vaccination rate by the end of 2021 had been met. It is in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases.

The main findings — 19.8 million COVID-19 deaths were prevented — are based on estimates that more deaths than usual occurred during that period. Using only the reported COVID-19 deaths, 14.4 million deaths were avoided by the vaccine in the same model.

Scientists in London have ruled out China because of uncertainty about the pandemic’s death and its impact on its vast population.

This study has other limitations. The researchers did not include how the virus mutated differently in the absence of the vaccine. And they didn’t consider how the blockage or mask wearing would change if the vaccine wasn’t available.

Another modeling group used a different approach to estimate that 16.3 million COVID-19 deaths were avoided by the vaccine. The work by the Institute for Health Metrics in Seattle has not been published.

In the real world, people wear masks more often when incidents are on the rise, said Institute Ali Mokudad, and the 2021 delta wave without vaccines prompted a major policy response. Would have been.

“We may not agree with the number as scientists, but we all agree that the COVID vaccine has saved many lives,” Mokudad said.

The findings highlight both the outcomes and shortcomings of the vaccination campaign, said Adam Finn of the Bristol Medical College in the United Kingdom, who was not involved in the study like Mokudad.

“This time it worked pretty well, but it saved millions of lives, but it should have done better, and in the future it should do better,” Finn said.

Funds came from several groups, including WHO. UK Medical Research Council; Vaccine Alliance, Gavi; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Contributed by Havovi Todd, AP’s Health and Science Reporter.

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The Associated Press’s Department of Health Sciences is supported by the Science Education Department of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. AP is solely responsible for all content.

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